四月份的景氣燈號依舊是藍燈，分數14分，從去年十一月以來已經連續六個月藍燈。會不會像 2008~2009 年連續九藍燈呢？
不過這次雖然六藍燈，分數卻沒上次那麼低。上波景氣低點，景氣對策信號分數從2008年八月的18分，急降到到九月的12分，然後依序是 12, 12, 11, 9, 9, 10, 10, 11, 12 分，到 2009年六月才彈到17分，脫離藍燈區。其中2008/12 與 2009/1 都達到最低的九分。
而這次雖然六藍燈，但是分數從2011/10 月的 20 分，降到11月的藍燈16分，然後是 14, 13, 15, 14, 14 分。並沒有上次慘烈。也許這可以解釋股市依舊撐在7000點之上。短期的情況應該沒有想上次那麼慘，但是因為沒急跌，大概也就不會V型反轉，而是慢慢療傷慢慢恢復吧。
對比希臘問題，一般還是希望撐住，慢慢解套，應該對社會衝擊比較小吧。所以我想至少這一兩年應該還是這樣上上下下，慢慢去槓桿吧。
四月份台股繼續壟罩在證所稅的陰影下，加上財報利空、法國總統選舉變天、歐債疑雲再起，繼續盤跌，一度跌破7500點。指數從 7933 跌到7501點，跌幅5.45%
兩個零用錢組合趁低點進了一些ETF，與一些大股票。
| 2012/03 | 2012/04 | |
| ETF | 79,430 | 99,730 |
| 股票 | 63,320 | 62,965 |
| 現金 | 53,339 | 19,489 |
| 總資產 | 196,089 | 192,348 |
| 成本 | 187,875 | 187,875 |
| 損益 | 8,214 | 4,473 |
| 總報酬率 | 4.37% | 2.38% |
零用錢二
| 2012/03 | 2012/04 | |
| ETF | 24,530 | 47,680 |
| 股票 | 45,770 | 54,714 |
| 現金 | 35,790 | 2,108 |
| 總資產 | 106,090 | 104,502 |
| 成本 | 101,600 | 101,600 |
| 損益 | 4,490 | 2,902 |
| 總報酬率 | 4.42% | 2.86% |
| 寶來加權指數基金 | 1.35% | -4.37% |
| 台灣五十報酬指數 | 1.75% | -3.74% |
| 台灣高股息報酬指數 | 3.92% | 0.32% |
兩個的跌幅都小於大盤。（其實之前的漲幅也是小於大盤，原因之一當然是有現金部位）不過經過四月份大跌，總績效已經跟定存差不多了，嗚嗚~~~
此外，為了比較這樣的擇時與部份自行挑選股票，有沒有比呆呆的定期定額投資指數來得好，所以這篇開始我會用零用錢二跟幾個定期定額的標的來比較。比較的時間區間就從零用錢二開始的時間點起算：假設從2010/07開始每個月定期定額投資某標的。比較的對象一個是實際的寶來加權股價指數基金，另外兩個是台灣五十與台灣高股息報酬指數。績效數字就直接附在零用錢二的表格最後。
總報酬率變化圖
之前問了美國公司股息是屬於NEC, 所以要繳30%的稅。那麼像 VWO這種投資非美國公司的ETF的配息的預扣稅款能不能退稅呢？因為今年Firstrade的Form 1042-S ，把VWO的股息收入跟其他美國股票的股息收入合在一起成一筆 gross income. 如果非美國來源可以退稅，那該如何申報呢？於是我又寫信去問了IRS，問題原文如下：
I am a nonresident alien investor from Taiwan. My question is how to refund the 30% tax withhold of the U.S. source dividends I receive from a foreign corporation. I bought the VWO ETF through a online broker. VWO is an exchange traded fund managed by Vanguard Group, Inc. This fund invests in stocks of companies located in emerging markets around the world. It does not invest in any U.S. companies. According to Pub 519, Chapter 3, the dividends paid by foreign corporations can be exempt from the 30% tax. However, in my Form 1042-s, there is only one gross income item of code 06, which includes the dividend from VWO. For example, the total gross income is $1000, and $300 is from VWO. Can the 30% tax withhold of the dividend from VWO can be refund ? If yes, since there is no dividend amount from VWO in Form 1042-s, should I provide the additional document which states the dividend from VWO
and the document which states that the stocks of VWO does not include the U.S. companies ?
IRS 的答覆如下：
Hello, thank you for your inquiry dated April 30, 2012 concerning how to obtain a refund of tax withheld on foreign dividends even though you received a Form 1042-S, Foreign Person's U.S. Source Income Subject to withholding which shows that they are U.S. sourced dividends. We apologize for the delay in responding to your inquiry.
Assuming that these are foreign sourced dividends, no federal income tax should have been withheld. The Form 1042-S that was issued should have shown Income Code 8, which represents foreign sourced dividends, rather than income code 6. you should request that the broker furnish you with a corrected Form 1042-S
Also, the broker should refund the federal income tax that was withheld. If the broker is unable or unwilling to refund the withholding tax, you should file a Form 1040NR, U.S. Nonresident Alien Income Tax Return showing that these dividends are foreign sourced dividends, and showing a $0 tax rate.
Additional information can be found in Publication 515, Withholding of Tax on Nonresident Aliens and Foreign Entities, and in Publication 519, U.S. Tax Guide for Aliens.
---
我想結論應該是：
1. 應該要求borker更改 Form 1042-S. 然後broker要退回稅款
(這樣很像是之前 Firstrade 做的事)
2. 如果 broker 無法或不願退稅，就要用1040NR申請了，然後標明這些是國外股息，標明稅率是0%。
不過如果要申報，是不是需要一些佐證的文件呢？否則只有一張把美國與非美國股息收入合在一起的1042-S，恐怕有困難哩。
